to take the delayed effect of balance sheet reduction conducted earlier into its consideration of rate cuts. The current phase-out of balanc
上海会所e sheet reduction already has some easing effect, and only after the balance sheet reduction ends in September, can its impact become clearer.
By incorporating that impact into consideration, the Fed can draw up a better rate cut plan that maximizes effects of the policy mix.上海会所
Thirdly, the market may have overestimated how much the Fed will cut the rates. There may be no more than three rate cuts by the end of 2020.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – the major advocate of this
round of rate cut – has suggested the use of the modern-day Taylor rule, which fairly well explains th上海会所
e Fed’s interest rate decisions. Even based on this model adopted by dovish Fed officials, we found that the degree of rate cuts may be weaker than m
上海会所arket expectation for quite some time going forward: at most one cut by the end of this year and likely two or three cuts by the end of 2020.
By contrast, before the June FOMC meeting, the market expected a higher-than-85-percent chance of more than one rate cut by the
end of this year as well as an about 60-percent chance of more than three cuts by the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg data.上海会所品茶微信
In conclusion, we think as economic downside pressure gradually emerges, the Fed will have to kick off the rate cut cycle. But the rate cut si上海会所品茶微信
gnal, timing and degree may not measure up to the market expectation. Therefore, two future developments appear possible:
First, investor sentiment can reverse drastically if the Fed’s action fails to meet market expec上海会所品茶微信
tation. Considering the market has fully priced in the unrealistic expectation of rate cuts sinc
e early June, any reversal of expectation can lead to short-term fluctuations of key price signals such as the US Treasury yield cu
rve, the US Dollar Index, and the gold price, which may pose extensive spillover shocks to asset portfolios.
Second, the long-term trend of rate cuts will continue even if the market expectation reverses. In the long
run, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts in a fairly slow and smooth way. This will enlarge the monetary policy room of ot
her major economies and expedite the shift toward an easing global monetary environment, which may in turn lift the sen
timent of global stock markets and ease any currency risk of emerging markets gradually.
Cheng Shi is the managing director, head of research and chief economist of ICBC Interna
tional Holdings Ltd.Qian Zhijun is a senior economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd.
hina Petrole上海会所品茶微信um and Chemical Corp, the world’s larg
est refiner by volume, has agreed to establish a joint venture with Russia’s Novatek and Gazp
rombank to market natural and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China, Sinopec said on Thursday.
The agreement, which aims to sell LNG produced by Novatek in the Arctic, was signed fo
llowing talks in Moscow between Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President, Xi Jinping.
The agreement will be of considerable economic and social benefit an
d will further diversify China’s natural gas imports, while meeting ever-increasing ga
s demand in the country, said Dai Houliang, China Petrochemical Corp president.
Wang Aiqin, one of Li’s granddaughters, said that Li has four sons who
take care of her in rotation every month, along wi
th her three daughters. Li can remember all her family members but is slightly deaf.
Li enjoys good relationships with her neighbors, and is healthy, having used to be a farm worker.
She lives a routine life and does regular exercise, while her diet
consists mainly of porridge, steamed buns and vegetables, Wang said.
“She likes to watch some TV programs of traditional operas, and we bought her a TV set,” Wang said.
success of winning the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2012, Zhang Qinghua, professor at Beijing Normal University, believes that Mo’s way of dealing with this h
as been to make a return to his hometown, a village in Gaomi, Shandong province, both in reality and spiritually.
Mo didn’t publish any new work in the five years following the award, when in 2017 he
released several short stories, poems and theater works, mainly reminiscing about his hometown.
Unlike Mo’s former novels, Peking University professor Chen Xiaoming notes th
at his new works are more reserved, realistic stylistically and employ more simple language. Literary cri
tic Li Jingze is impressed that Mo has remained acutely sensitive to the realities of urban and rural life.
he United States, may lead to weaker business confidence and slower
global trade growth, which is expected to weigh on investment and exports in 2020. But in the n
ear term, as China shows positive surprise in GDP growth in the first quarter, and the macroeconomic policies hav
e taken effects on stabilizing the growth, the GDP growth rate is likely to stay at 6.2 percent, the report said.
“In response to the growth moderation and less favorable external conditions, the government in
troduced a fiscal stimulus emphasizing tax incentives,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Country director for China.
“While the central government has fiscal space to further increase spending, if necessary, the additional stimulus should be ap
propriately funded either directly at the central level or through additional fiscal transfers to the provinces. Highe
At least four deaths have been blamed on crowding during the climbs, Agence France-Presse reported.
People should be well prepared to handle Qomolangma’s traffic jams which are common phenomena along climbing paths, said alpinists who had reached the summit.
“Although the news about the jam on Qomolangma this year has gone viral, people should understand that it happens every year during the brief cl
imbing window. Knowing what to do when climbers jam the narrow paths should be incl
uded in their training well in advance,” said Ma Liyamu, who reached the top of Qomolangma, the world’s ta
llest mountain at 8,848 meters, on May 22 and was also held up by the crowds on her descent.
She is the leader of a mountaineering team of three Chinese women w
ho scaled Qomolangma. They launched their expedition from Nepal, which issued 381 cli
mbing permits for the season that concludes this week. Nepal’s permits this season cost $11,000 each.